2/18/11

IBM Watson and the Future of Robots

Watson did well in the things that computers do well.  That is, to pattern match.  
Here is the future in computer development, as I see it now.
2011 - Watson wins Jeopardy
2015 - IBM Watsons are installed in medical and customer service applications
2016 - Watsons installed in robots. Robots can now perform menial household and factory tasks, and programmed by just being told.  
2020 - Watsons installed in cars.  Driverless cars introduced, first high end (Caddilac, Lexus) then all cars.
2021 - Most trucks driver-less on interstates.  
2025 - Most mining operations now use robots.
2030 - A Manufacturing operation uses robots exclusively from mining raw materials, smelting, and production, and delivery.
2035 - Robots manufacture and install solar cells, 95% of all energy now solar. Cheaper than oil.
2041 - First factory that reproduces itself, completely automated, producing robots that build another factory.
2048 - Reproduce-able robot factories now on Moon and Mars.  
2050 - Reproduce-able robots now number more than human population.  
2066 - Human population falling as people see less need for children to support them in old age due to robot availability.
2070 - Robot population limited by available energy.  
2090 - Economics and Money abandoned as population declines and all products are free anyway.  
2240 - Messianic age arrives.  No more war. 

Oh, and one more thing.  There is never a "singularity".  Watsons never gain consciousness.  It is just not what computers can do. 

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